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The recent swoon in the market could be attributed to confusion and uncertainty around the United States’ new tariff and trade policy. The Trump administration has announced a flurry of current and potential future tariffs, that are changing and evolving almost daily, making it difficult for investors to adequately understand the goals, the economic impacts, and the potential unintended consequences. As such, the market has traded down on general uncertainty about our overall trade policy. Tariffs were a campaign promise to rectify certain inequities among our trading partners. As expected, shortly after the inauguration, the new administration announced tariffs on three of our largest trading partners. These tariffs were presented as a way to pressure Canada, Mexico, and China to assist with curtailing our immigration and fentanyl problems. Some tariffs were imposed, some changed, some delayed, and some are still being negotiated. The lack of clarity has caused confusion as...
09.18.2023
The year 2022 was a bloodbath for both equity and bond markets–the S&P 500 was down 18% and the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index had its worst year ever, down 13%. This year, 2023, began with the US debt ceiling standoff, followed by a banking crisis, and continued rate hikes by the major central banks. The economy seemed like it would get worse before it got better, and the consensus was calling for a near-term recession. However, the stock market quickly shrugged off many of these concerns. Year-to-date as of August 31, the S&P 500 is up approximately 17% and NASDAQ is up approximately 34%. The S&P 500 is officially in a bull market (i.e., up at least 20% from its recent lows in October 2022). With the Federal Reserve and some economists no longer forecasting a recession[1], it makes one wonder what has changed in the last few months....
